#ChargeOn Today: Don't believe the Heup — Big 12 break up❓— TBT, literally 🏀
Before we jump in, a gracious farewell to our friend Sami Kincaid, who’s leaving the UCF team-reporter beat for a new gig and to return home to Tennessee. Sami has such a warm and inviting personality and her Strolin’ with Sami series was always an enjoyable watch! We’ll miss you, Sami! Good luck in Nashville!
Today’s read is 7.5 minutes ⏲️
Trending in the Kingdom: UCF > Tennessee?
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel at SEC Media Days (photo: Associated Press)
Welcome to the show, Josh Heupel. The UCF-turned-Tennessee head football coach took his turn at the lectern for SEC Media Days in Hoover, Alabama. The oft-soft spoken, sometimes-awkward Heupel seemed to embrace the rebuild in Knoxville, but irked his ex-fanbase when asked what he’s learned in the past that prepared him for the Vols job.
This job is different than the job I took over at UCF, and every job is different, whether it’s your recruiting base, your conference, your location, the university,“ Heupel said. "There’s so many factors that go into it. I think that I obviously have grown over the course of my three years, and being able to communicate and build a program from the bottom up.”
Oof, those last seven words.
Let’s be clear: Heupel didn’t “build” UCF from the “bottom up”. He was handed the keys to a budding program coming off one of the best seasons (an undefeated national championship 😉) in program history and proceeded to steer its decline back into mediocrity. Fans didn’t take kindly to his remarks, as evidenced by the replies to Tampa Bay Times reporter Matt Baker’s tweet (more on Matt in a second).
In case you forgot, here’s a reminder of Heupel’s three-year run at UCF:
2018: 12-1, L in Peach Bowl
2019: 10-3, W in the Gasparilla Bowl
2020: 6-4, L in the Boca Raton Bowl
Clearly, there was going to be regression after the undefeated season and a number of factors didn’t help the cause - key departures, McKenzie Milton’s awful knee injury and the pandemic - but in no way did Heupel “build” this program from “the bottom up”. That was all Scott Frost’s doing - and he parlayed that into a job at Nebraska, which isn’t really going so well.
As for Heupel, his old boss brought him to Knoxville - for his offensive chops - when he struck out on a few other top coveted candidates, and that brings me to truly what’s trending.
Here’s the scoop: Is Heupel doomed for the same destiny as Frost? There’s now the optics that UCF is a better job than Tennessee, which hasn’t been relevant in 22 years.
Back to Matt Baker, who penned a piece for the Tampa Bay Times on Heupel’s chances to turn around Tennessee, and it wasn’t very coy.
What Matt’s saying 🗣️
“When Tennessee and Florida were sparring atop the league in the ’90s, the Volunteers had advantages that no longer exist. Three notable nearby teams (Alabama, Georgia and Clemson) were down. Now they’re three of the top five programs in the sport and able to dominate Tennessee’s recruiting footprint…
"That’s the challenge Heupel faces. The program he inherits has a championship pedigree but hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in two decades. It doesn’t matter how famous your logo is if Alabama and Georgia keep lapping you in recruiting and seven-loss seasons continue to mount. The expectations don’t match the reality…
"The landscape has changed since Heupel changed jobs in January. His new job will soon become worse than his old one. Assuming the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams in the next few years, UCF should become an annual contender. The Knights have the facilities, recruiting footprint and recent success to remain one of the AAC’s top teams. Most years, the AAC winner will be one of the top six conference champions, which would mean a guaranteed playoff berth under the current proposal.”
“Compare that feasible route to the one Heupel will have at Tennessee, where Florida, Georgia and ‘Bama are on the schedule every year. If Heupel is going to rebuild the Vols into what they believe they can be, he’ll have to progress in ways that didn’t show up in Orlando, where he went from 12-1 to 10-3 to 6-4.”
Matt’s points are all incredibly valid. A majority of the fanbase wanted to send Danny White a gift basket for taking Heupel off our hands, and paying his former employer a $3.5 million buyout to do so. That was before Gus Malzahn entered the picture, a head coach with more experience and better recruiting chops.
Where Matt’s right: The advanced timeline of college football’s playoff expansion to 12 teams changed the game for UCF, and devalued the need for a coach to jump to a Power 5 conference to earn a shot at a national championship. Heupel’s payday was understandable - and his raise, significant - but the payoff may not be worth it in the long run, at least in terms of program success.
Tennessee hasn’t won the SEC Championship since Tee Martin and Peyton Manning were under center. That won’t get any easier in the new, rich NIL era where Alabama’s quarterback can net nearly seven-figures in endorsement money before even starting a game. UCF, strictly in terms of a path to the Playoff, is in a better spot, especially when Florida, Alabama and Georgia aren’t standing in the way.
Where Matt’s wrong: Heupel’s tenure won’t end up like Jeremy Pruitt, Butch Jones and Pat Dooley. He’s an exceptionally-skilled offensive mind and that alone should offer him the opportunity to pull Tennessee out of its SEC irrelevance. PFF wrote an in-depth piece (it’s very “inside baseball”) on Heupel’s offense and why it’s exactly what’s needed to get Tennessee back on track.
I have no doubt we’ll see plenty of touchdowns in Tennessee and, in time, they’ll be one of the most exciting brands of football in the country. That’ll attract recruits, especially talented quarterbacks, and that’s the key position that’s eluded Tennessee the past two decades. Tennessee naturally attracts high-profile skill players, but if Heupel can land, and develop, a star signal-caller, then he’s on his way to returning Rocky Top to college football’s mountain top.
Will Vols' Josh Heupel, like Huskers' Scott Frost, regret leaving UCF? - Orlando Sentinel
New Tennessee coach Josh Heupel is undertaking one of the toughest rebuilding jobs in college football
www.orlandosentinel.com • Share
Big 12 break up❓🤘 How UCF could benefit
Texas and Oklahoma reportedly want to join the SEC (Photo: Getty Images)
Hello, Realignment Twitter, we missed you (I think). What a bombshell dropped by the Houston Chronicle yesterday. Texas and Oklahoma are reportedly swooning the SEC in an attempt to join the conference - and apparently there’s mutual interest. Is the Big 12 in trouble? Would a SEC super-league even be fair?
Fill me in: Texas and Oklahoma reportedly reached out to SEC brass to gauge their interest in opening up two spots for the Big 12 juggernauts, which would create a seismic shift in the sport. It stunned SEC Media Days, and made for some stellar slights by Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher.
Now, before you roll your eyes, there’s a number of credible reporters backing the Chronicle’s exclusive.
From SI’s Ross Delinger:
“The news is true, sources confirmed to Sports Illustrated: Texas and Oklahoma have made serious inquiries with the SEC about joining the conference; the schools have both delivered to the league a clear message that they are exploring an exit strategy from the Big 12.”
And Yahoo!‘s Pete Thamel:
“This would be the most significant switching of leagues in the modern history of college athletics. After speaking with several sources all around college athletics, the sense is these conversations are very real and could move quickly. The next step in a potential process would be OU and Texas communicating their plans to the Big 12 before formally expressing interest to the SEC. It’s uncertain when that would be, but the publicity from Wednesday would potentially expedite that timeline…while Texas A&M is aggressively against the move, it may be the only team in the league that feels strongly that way. Admittance requires 11 of 14 votes, which appears imminently attainable.”
So yeah, this isn’t just smoke. Let’s answer some of the key questions in this latest round of realignment, even amid the expansion of the Playoff.
Why would Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12?
It’s pretty obvious, but money and stability are the key factors here. The Big 12’s television deal is up after the 2024 season and there doesn’t seem to be a rush by Fox to pony up big dollars to lock them to a long-term deal, like they did with the Big 10 or like ESPN has done for the SEC.
Look, each Big 12 school nets nearly $38 million in payout dollars, the third most of any conference, so nobody’s starving for cash, but the allure of the SEC (and its hefty TV pay raise that’s coming) is too much to pass on, especially if they’re on board. The stability that comes with joining the sport’s biggest conference, already viewed as the NFL’s minor leagues, especially in a changing landscape with the new NIL era and expansion on the horizon is quite tantalizing.
What could get in Texas and Oklahoma’s way?
Well, there’s politics, like Texas A&M’s clear dismissal of any inclusion of another in-state school planting their flag in SEC country or Oklahoma State’s stance of disgust that OU would consider bolting.
There’s also a process, with 11 of the league’s 14 teams that would have to vote “yes” to Texas and Oklahoma’s inclusion. There’s a good bet that would pass, but at least two - TAMU and Missouri - would reportedly vote “no”.
There’s also the Big 12’s grant of rights agreement, which both schools would violate if they chose to leave. That deal runs through 2025. The fee would be around $70 million if Texas and OU parted ways early, which isn’t cheap, but could be offset by a massive TV payout for the SEC, which could command $50+ million per school when their network deal expires.
What’s all of this mean for UCF?
That’s to be determined, because there’s a lot of moving parts here. If the Big 12 loses its two biggest pieces of recognizable real estate, they may fold. If they choose to survive, they could look to add UCF and Cincinnati to the fold, but the TV deal would likely command much less than the $38M per year payout.
The bigger picture here is this movement toward 16-team “super leagues” and this would speed that inevitable process up. If the SEC balloons to 16 teams and adds two of the biggest blue bloods in the sport, other conferences would need to respond. The Big 10, Pac 12 and ACC would love to pick apart the leftovers of the Big 12, or choose to invite a program with promise, much like UCF.
That’s the best bet, in my opinion, for UCF to finally climb to the Power 5 level, but the expansion of the playoff to 12 teams allows them to be a wee bit more patient. Keep in mind, this could all escalate quickly, before the 12-team format gets adopted, but either way, it would be foolish for a conference like the ACC or Big 10 to ignore UCF, given its footprint, market and alumni base.
Give me a Knugget 🐴: The Power 5 conferences, combined, brought in a total of $2.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2019, according to tax records. That includes $700M+ for both the Big Ten and SEC. The American Athletic conference reported a fraction of that in 2019, $73.2 million in total revenue, with UCF getting a $7M+ payout. So yeah, it pays to be in the Power 5, literally.
Deeper Dive 🤿:
Analysis: Sure, Texas and Oklahoma could move to SEC. But there’s a lot of roadblocks to sort first (USA Today)
Texas, Oklahoma have reached out to SEC with interest in joining: Reports (The Athletic)
With Texas, Oklahoma on cusp of biggest move in college sports history, will pettiness get in way? (Yahoo! Sports)
TBT, no literally 🏀
ON TO DAYTON 🗣
#ChargeOn ⚔ #BuiltByUCF https://t.co/mRZL3i3hJY
How’s this for a TBT? No, not just Throwback Thursday, but “The Basketball Tournament”, which features a trio of ex-UCF basketball stars - and they’re lightning it up.
If you’re not up to speed, the TBT league is a high-stakes, winner-take-all tournament format, birthed in 2014, with 64 teams competing for the $1 million grand prize. It’s in the middle of its eighth season and games are broadcast on ESPN.
The “Florida TNT” team, which features former Knights ballers Keith Clanton, Matt Williams, and Tristan Spurlock, advanced to Championship Week at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. They’re two wins shy of the winner-take-all final, which is August 3 on ESPN at 9p EST.
Keith Clanton (2009-13): UCF’s all-time rebounds (1,000) and games played (129) leader.
Matt Williams (2012-17): Hit a UCF and conference record 11 3-pointers in a win over USF.
Tristan Spurlock (2010-14): Averaged 11.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks in 28.5 minutes per game as a senior.
Programming note 📺: (2) AfterShocks vs (5) Florida TNT, Saturday at 12 p.m. on ESPN. Full schedule here.
By Ryan Bass
The #ChargeOn Today Newsletter is dedicated to covering trending UCF Athletics news and topics. Have some feedback? Shoot me a message: chargeontoday@gmail.com
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