#ChargeOn Today: In-state Shaquem 🐬 — OU, Texas timeline — UCF's expansion fit? 🙏
Shaquill and Shaquem Griffin won’t be too far from one another after all. I can finally celebrate a free-agent signing by my hometown Miami Dolphins, who inked Shaquem to a one-year deal.
The former UCF defensive player of the year and Seahawks linebacker gives the Dolphins some special teams depth and pass-rushing, veteran experience. That Week 6 Dolphins-Jaguars contest in Jacksonville is going to be a fun twin reunion!
🚨 Also, UCF is close to finalizing a deal with a naming-rights sponsor for the Bounce House. We see you, Shareholder Sean 👏
Today’s read is 5.5 minutes ⏲️
Texas and Oklahoma are now officially leaving the Big 12, the question is when. (Photo: Dallas Morning News)
Trending in the Kingdom: The Big 12 blow up 🤘🏻
Who feels like it’s 2010 all over again? All of this expansion talk gives me nightmares of the flirtation with the Big East from a decade ago, USF stiff-arming us and being stuck on the outside looking in.
It’s pessimism, I know, but for some strange reason, it feels like deja vu, only this might be UCF’s last chance to gain access to a Power 5 conference.
Let’s examine where we stand.
Fill me in with the latest 🚨: It’s now official. Oklahoma and Texas released a joint statement on Monday, informing Big 12 leaders they won’t be renewing their media rights after the deal expires in 2025. In layman’s terms. they’re leaving for the SEC, it’s just a matter of when they’ll begin league play.
We explained in our last newsletter why they’re bolting, how much it’ll cost them and the initial ripple effects, but this continues to evolve by the hour, so let’s step back for a second.
Here’s a timeline of how this all went down:
Wednesday, 3:30 p.m. - The Houston Chronicle drops a bombshell report, citing a six-month dialog between Texas, Oklahoma and SEC officials, gauging interest in joining college football’s premiere league.
4:13 p.m. - The Big 12 was caught off guard by the report, unaware their two cornerstone universities wanted out.
4:47 p.m. - The University of Texas releases a statement, saying they won’t comment on realignment reports, but not directly denying it.
10:54 p.m. - WFAA-TV in Dallas reports both Texas and Oklahoma will send a letter to the Big 12 informing them about their intent not to renew their media contracts once they expire in 2025.
Thursday, 12:20 p.m. - Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reports that Big 12 athletic directors, presidents and chancellors schedule an emergency meeting to discuss Texas-OU potential exit.
6:20 p.m. - Big 12 conference call is underway. The emergency meeting excludes Texas and Oklahoma, who were no-shows. Leaders also discussed, briefly, who they might want to add, or if UCF, Houston, Cincinnati or BYU even make sense to invite.
9:11 p.m. - Big 12 releases a statement, threatening to hold teams who try to exit the conference to their grant of rights contract, meaning Texas and/or Oklahoma would have to pay around $76 million each to leave.
Friday, 9:46 a.m. - Pete Thamel reports the ACC also reached out to Texas and Oklahoma to gauge their interest in joining the league. Thamel said the official process to leave for the SEC will begin next week, and that the back-channeling has been ongoing for a year.
11:53 a.m. - Ross Dellinger of Sports Illustrated reports Big 12 leaders are fearful the league could fold, worried they’ll lose autonomy and TV dollars, even if they add prominent non-P5 schools, like UCF.
12:06 p.m. - Dellinger reports Texas and Oklahoma could play out the rest of their grant of rights contract, avoiding the $76M payout, and officially leaving in 2025 for the SEC.
12:23 p.m. - CBS Sports reports Texas and Oklahoma are expected to inform Big 12 of their plans to leave in as soon as “24-48 hours.”
1:37 p.m. - The Athletic reports Big 12 members discussed a potential 20-school merger with the Pac-12, instead of bringing in new members from non-P5 conferences.
8:47 p.m. - Thamel reports the formal withdrawal for Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12 will begin next week, likely Monday.
9:47 p.m. - Mike Leslie, of WFAA-TV, reports Texas A&M Board of Regents will meet on Monday at 5 pm CT over the phone, “for discussion and possible action on contractual and governance issues relating to Texas A&M University and the Southeastern Conference.”
Saturday, 9:07 a.m. - The Athletic reports the American Conference could poach the Big 12 if the league falls apart.
5:39 p.m. - Texas A&M’s president releases a statement confirming their stance with the SEC.
5:49 p.m - Dodd reports that Big 12 administrators floated the idea of paying Texas and OU a higher piece of the revenue share in an effort to convince them to stay.
Sunday, 7:27 p.m. - The Big 12 Board of Directors and commissioner Bob Bowlsby announce they’ve met virtually with Oklahoma and Texas presidents to discuss “proposals that would strengthen the conference and be mutually beneficial to OU and UT.”
Monday, 10:21 a.m. - It became official with a joint statement from Texas and Oklahoma to the Big 12, declaring their intent to not renew their media rights after the 2025 season, signaling their exit from the conference. The schools said they “intend to honor their existing grant of rights agreements” but that both would “continue to monitor the rapidly evolving collegiate athletics landscape.”
Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma Sooners tell Big 12 they will not renew grant of media rights
Texas and Oklahoma notified the Big 12 on Monday that they will not be renewing their grants of media rights following expiration in 2025.
Where does UCF fit in all of this? 🙏
Will the Big 12 fold, or invite UCF as one of the schools to replace Texas and Oklahoma?
Forgive me for valuing the brand, but I can’t help but believe UCF is a coveted commodity in a college football landscape that values market size and money, both of which UCF brings to the table.
Let’s start with the obvious here, the Big 12 has to adapt or die. To me, that means pivoting to recovery and staying relevant among the Power 5 conferences as soon as possible.
Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 before 2025, they just legally had to say they intended to honor the contract, but they’re hoping the Big 12 dissolves so they don’t have to pay a combined $150 million in exit fees. The SEC is expected to vote on officially inviting OU and UT, which should happen this week, according to Thamel. But now, the real fun begins, because all the other leagues have to keep pace with the SEC.
Here’s the remaining eight teams in the Big 12:
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
West Virginia
There’s going to be an attempt from other conferences to poach the remaining members, and it might turn into a free-for-all, but there’s another option: they band together, and rally around the addition of 4-6 new members to help keep the conference alive. Here’s Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby’s statement on Monday:
“Although our eight members are disappointed with the decisions of these two institutions, we recognize that intercollegiate athletics is experiencing rapid change and will most likely look much different in 2025 than it does currently. The Big 12 Conference will continue to support our member institutions’ efforts to graduate student-athletes, and compete for Big 12 and NCAA championships. Like many others, we will use the next four years to fully assess what the landscape will look like in 2025 and beyond. The remaining eight institutions will work together in a collaborative manner to thoughtfully and strategically position the Big 12 Conference for continued success, both athletically and academically, long into the future.”
We’re staring down the barrel of a new college football universe, birthing super-conferences to keep pace with the SEC. The ACC could soon target West Virginia and the Big Ten may entice Kansas (of course, only because of basketball), but for now, the best bet is to add schools like UCF, USF, Houston and Cincinnati for long-term survival.
I think Max Olson puts it pest in his piece for The Athletic:
“The fate of the conference comes down to an element that has been historically elusive over its 26-year existence, something its two powerhouses just shattered: trust.
Can these eight schools stick together and operate with a shared belief that staying aligned puts more options on the table? Or does self-interest eventually win out, leading them to go off on their own and do whatever they can to find a secure new home?
…But sources inside and outside the Big 12 agree the more prudent course of action for these schools, at least right now, is banding together and focusing their efforts on plotting a path to long-term survival for their Power 5 league.”
This conference, without Texas and Oklahoma, won’t command the near $40 million in annual rights fees, but with expansion, you could justify half that, maybe a $20-25M payout, which is better than the alternative. Remember, the AAC pays out around $7-8 million.
Olsen specifically floats UCF, USF, Cincinnati and Houston as schools on the Big 12’s shortlist, mainly because of an attractive “alumni base, market size, football competitiveness, etc.” I’d add Boise State and BYU to that list, if they decide to expand beyond 12, but that’s a start. Key takeaway: UCF is the most attractive piece here.
So why is 2021 different than 2016? As Olson notes, “they don’t have the luxury of being overly picky anymore, not as they fight for survival. Those four schools would add value, and there are many more out there worth exploring. If you grant them the opportunity and the resources of a Big 12 school, recent history suggests they’ll evolve and succeed. Just ask TCU.”
The final verdict: We’ve heard the argument that UCF “doesn’t bring any eyeballs” from a Big 12 AD, but that’s pure ignorance. UCF has frequently outdrawn every Big 12 school not named Texas and Oklahoma the last few years in TV ratings.
Also, talk that the American Conference could go on the offensive and poach current Big 12 members is cute, but not realistic. No current P5 member school would choose to relegate themselves, especially to a conference paying pennies to your current TV deal.
Expansion is happening. It’s either the Big 12 attempts to survive, or they fold and the rest of the sport sweeps up the pieces. UCF has to pray the Big 12 doesn’t collapse, because it’s their quickest ticket to college football relevance - and it may be their last for a long time.
By Ryan Bass
The #ChargeOn Today Newsletter is dedicated to covering trending UCF Athletics news and topics. Have some feedback? Shoot me a message: chargeontoday@gmail.com
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