#ChargeOn Today: 🗓️ Scheduling conundrum — Owning Auburn — the road to OKC
Who else is happy it’s finally the weekend? ✋
Before we jump in, here’s a few UCF games to add to your weekend-viewing calendar:
🥎 Softball: NCAA Tallahassee Regional: UCF vs. Florida State - today, 12 p.m. (TV: ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNNews)
⚾ Baseball: UCF vs. Houston - today, 4 p.m. (TV: ESPN+)
Today’s read is 8 minutes ⏲️
Trending in the Kingdom: 🗓️ Step up and schedule us
UCF is set to play North Carolina in 2025 and 2027.
The strength of schedule debate has long plagued UCF when it comes to inclusion in the College Football Playoff, and it doesn’t seem the slight will die down any time soon.
Here’s the scoop: Taking a look at the future out-of-conference opponents for the Knights, it’s not overly impressive. This season, UCF is scheduled to host Boise State to open the year and visit Louisville on Sept. 17. Beyond 2021, there’s a clear need for high-quality opponents.
2022: at FIU, vs. Louisville, vs. Georgia Tech
2023: at Boise State, vs. BYU
2024: at BYU, vs. Liberty
2025: vs. North Carolina
2027: at North Carolina
Noteworthy: Excluding 2020, only one of UCF’s big-name opponents have averaged double-digit win totals since 2015, and that’s Boise State (10.4).
Hooty hoot 🦉: There’s rumors on UCFSports.com that FAU could replace one of these upcoming out-of-conference opponents. Word is also circling on Twitter that a home-and-home series is likely.
It’s worth reminding you that UCF has never lost to FAU in football. The Knights are 3-0 and their last win over the Owls, in 2019, came in Dillon Gabriel’s first-career start. Their first win, in 2003, featured the two-headed monster of Brandon Marshall and Mike Sims-Walker, who both had over 100 yards receiving.
Knight Sports Now’s Christian Simmons made a key observation if FAU does get added to next year’s schedule:
With today’s scheduling news, UCF will now likely play 9 of its 12 games for the 2022 season in the state of Florida
Back to the scheduling conundrum…this is nothing new. UCF’s meteoric rise up the ranks of the sport has worked against them in terms of adding blue bloods to the schedule.
Part of that, as critics will say, is because UCF wants an even series in terms of home games. Who can forget the Florida-UCF 2-for-1 saga from two years ago? Former Athletic Director Danny White consistently fought to keep UCF on an even playing field in terms of future series, but it has been undoubtedly frustrating that quality teams aren’t calling.
For comparisons sake, since it does get brought up a lot, USF has a better out-of-conference schedule for the next decade, with 2-for-1 series against Florida (2021, 2022 and 2025), Alabama (2023, 2024 and 2026) and Miami (2025, 2027 and 2028). They also have a home-and-home with Notre Dame (2029 and 2031).
Three reasons they’ve had better scheduling success:
They play in a NFL stadium, which is attractive to major programs
They’re willing to take an uneven series
Most importantly, they’ve averaged 5.5 wins over the last 10 seasons, so teams can count on a win when they play the Bulls. (For context: UCF has averaged 8.3 over that same span)
Why does this all matter? Because the College Football Playoff committee puts a heavy emphasis on the quality of the opponents you play. UCF doesn’t have enough programs with premiere name recognition down the road, so their chances of sneaking in to the four-team playoff are slim to none.
Their best shot is if there’s utter chaos with ranked teams losing and they go undefeated, or they get invited to a Power 5 conference. Since that probably won’t happen in the near future, they’ll likely be on the outside looking in again.
So, what are the chances UCF plays Florida, Florida State or Miami in the future? If you ask Gus Malzahn or AD Terry Mohajir, they’re pretty good, but it takes two to tango.
“I know we definitely want to play Florida in the future, and I expect [coach] Dan [Mullen] probably wants to play us, too,” Malzahn said to ESPN back in April. “[Florida State coach] Mike Norvell, we’re really close, we go way back. I know he’d probably want to play us, and we’ll try to play Miami, too. Before I leave out of here, I want to play them all.”
Apparently, Miami has a pair of openings in 2022, 2026 and 2028, according to CanesWarning.com, so we’ll see if talks pick up in the future.
Deeper Dive 🤿:
How strength of schedule affects College Football Playoff chances (NCAA.com, from 2018)
UCF coach Gus Malzahn aims to lead Knights to the CFP promised land (ESPN.com)
⚔️ > 🐯 Slaying the Tigers
UCF’s social media squad is always on top of their game, but they pointed out on Twitter the sheer dominance we’ve seen from UCF over Auburn the last few years, across many sports. So let’s examine.
🏈 Jan. 1, 2018: Who can forget the biggest win program history? The 34-27 Peach Bowl victory over Gus Malzahn’s Auburn team (who was motivated, FWIW) served as the coronation for a dominant and undefeated UCF squad that later claimed a national championship. The NCAA did officially recognize the title, but who can forget the now-famous words of Danny White: “National Champs! Undefeated!”? McKenzie Milton, who overcame a sub-par first half to finish with 242 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interceptions, also said we could cancel the playoff.
“I said on the podium you can go ahead and cancel the playoffs. "I’m not changing my mind.” - Milton, to ESPN.com.
⚾ Feb. 23, 2020: The Peach Bowl was a neutral site. UCF baseball’s sweep of the Tigers took place on their turf, which made it that much sweeter. The Knights pounded No. 8 Auburn 12-2 in the series finale, clinching a few historic feats:
The first sweep of a ranked SEC opponent since No. 11 Alabama in 2001
The first road sweep of a ranked team since No. 8 Stetson that same year
Auburn was swept at home by a nonconference opponent for the first time ever
🏀 Nov. 30, 2020: The season-opener against Oklahoma was nixed due to COVID-19, which gave the UCF men’s basketball team a little more time to prepare for the Tigers, who had already played a pair of games. UCF harassed Auburn in the 63-55 win, forcing 12 turnovers, holding them to 32.3 percent shooting from the field and 20.6 percent from downtown.
“It lets us know we can beat pretty much anybody.“ - Guard C.J. Walker, an Orlando native and Oregon transfer
🥎 Today: The Lady Knights showed off their power with a five-run second inning and used a clutch double play to beat the Tigers, 5-4, and advance in the Tallahassee Regional (more on that in a second). It marked the program’s first-ever win over Auburn and the fourth time they’ve won the first game of the NCAA Tournament to advance to the winner’s bracket game. (The others: 2008, 2010, 2015 and 2021)
⚔ DOWN GO THE TIGERS ⚔
We open up the NCAA Regional with a DUB 🙌🙌 #ChargeOn https://t.co/pYi6kbgRD4
🥎 The Road to Oklahoma City
UCF softball has to battle through a tough region if they want a chance at OKC.
The win over Auburn put UCF in the winner’s bracket, where they’ll get a chance to face host Florida State on Saturday (12:30 p.m. first pitch). This round is double-elimination, meaning there’s a winner and losers bracket.
How they got here: UCF finished the regular season with a 39-17-1 record and runner-up in the American Athletic Conference, losing to No. 25 Wichita State in the title game. The Knights earned an at-large bid into the tournament, their first trip to the dance since 2016.
Along the way, UCF racked up three top-five ranked wins: No. 5 Florida (twice) and No. 2 Arizona.
A history lesson 📖: This is their eighth appearance in the NCAA Tournament in the program’s 20-year history. They’ve never advanced to the Super Regionals, losing in the Regional Final to Florida State in 2015 and Florida in 2016.
Here’s a look at the overall bracket, but if UCF were to win the Tallahassee Regional, they’d move on to face the winner of the Baton Rouge Regional, which features No. 7 LSU, McNeese State, George Washington and Louisiana Lafayette.
The overall tournament favorite: Oklahoma, who opened the year by setting the NCAA single-game record with 13 home runs in a rout of UTEP, smashed an NCAA-leading 120 home runs during the regular season and came out of the gate with 33 straight wins.
By Ryan Bass
The #ChargeOn Today Newsletter is dedicated to covering trending UCF Athletics news and topics. Have some feedback? Shoot me a message: chargeontoday@gmail.com
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