UCF vs. Boise State preview: Betting line, key match ups and the Broncos to watch
We've made it to the opening week of the college football season, so let's get you set for UCF's season-opener with Boise State on Thursday in Orlando.
Starting a Milton worked out pretty well for Josh Heupel at UCF, so why not go with the same strategy in Knoxville? The new Vols head coach says Michigan transfer Joe Milton III will start the season opener against Bowling Green on Thursday.
Funny enough, Milton is from Orlando. He was a four-star quarterback at Olympia High School in the Class of 2018.
Today’s read is 3 minutes ⏲️
Let the games begin: Scouting UCF vs. Boise State ⚔️
Finally, we bounce. It’s game week, Gus Malzahn’s debut and a sold-out Bounce House awaits, so it’ll be a night to remember come Thursday. Let’s get you set for game day against the Broncos
Boise State Broncos (0-0) vs. UCF Knights (0-0)
Date: Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Bounce House – Orlando, FL
Coverage: ESPN
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between the two programs.
Gambling Odds (via Cesars Sportsbook)
Spread: UCF -4.5
Moneyline: UCF -210, BSU +175
Total: Over 69 (-110), Under 69 (-110)
Betting trend to know: The total has hit the over in each of UCF's last five September games.
What you need to know about Boise State 🤔
Much like UCF, the Broncos are under new leadership after Bryan Harsin left Boise State to replace Malzahn at Auburn. Enter Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos, a former assistant who played linebacker at Boise State back in the early 2000s, who has some lofty expectations to uphold. Boise State’s past three coaches all won at least 78 percent of their games.
The Broncos went 5-2 last year in a pandemic-shortened season and have played in the last four conference championship games, but 2021 could feature a mixed bag for the Broncos. They do have a bunch of starters returning, including a ton of talented pass-catchers.
Of the 12 Broncos to catch a pass in 2020, 11 return this season.
They also have experience coming back at quarterback, in the backfield, on the offensive line, along that defensive front and returning starters at linebacker.
New Boise State offensive coordinator Timothy Plough is known for his up-tempo, West-Coast style, so it’ll be a test for a young, inexperienced UCF secondary. There’s going to be some deception, misdirection and screens, but it’s a complex system and requires quarterback Hank Bachmeier to be on his A-game.
A decade of dominance 💪: Since 2011, Boise State is 15-0 in non-conference games against schools in a Group of Five conference, so they’re typically the team to beat in contests like this, but UCF’s a step above most G5 programs.
What you need to know about UCF 🤔
There’s a new, revitalized Gus Malzahn in town leading a UCF program that regressed in Josh Heupel’s final season in 2020. Blame some of that on COVID-19, but at least he left Malzahn with one of the nation’s best quarterbacks to work with.
The Knights went 6-4 last year finishing with a loss to BYU in the Boca Bowl. It didn’t help that they lost a ton of skill position talent and defensive starters to the NFL Draft. A bevy of offseason transfers and leftover skill guys, especially with Dillon Gabriel returning, helps avoid what might otherwise be a rebuilding year.
Gabriel, ranked as the fourth-best quarterback in college football by Pro Football Focus, led the country in passing yards per game last year at 357 per game, which also was a school record. He’s thrown for 7,223 passing yards in just 23 career games and could become the first UCF quarterback with three 3,000-yard passing seasons if he pulls it off again this year.
Who steps up at running back? That’ll be the big key to keep this offense balanced, since UCF lost its top three rushers from a season ago (Bentavious Thompson just left the team in camp). It might be a situation where Malzahn plays the hot hand or interchanges backs according to the play call. Either way, expect it to be a rotation of guys behind Gabriel to start the season.
The defense has nowhere to go but up after ranking 123rd in the country in total defense in 2020, giving up nearly 500 yards a contest and 33.2 points per game. Let’s see how that young secondary shapes up, because they’ll be tested a lot this season. Let’s hope Travis Williams’ defense can continue to take the ball away like they did last year, when they were Top 10 in the nation in turnovers gained. UCF went 6-0 when having more takeaways than their opponent last season, so there’s your key stat.
Keep stacking W’s 🙌: UCF has gone 41-8 since the start of the 2017 season and they were just one of six FBS programs (Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma the others) to win at least 35 games from 2017-19.
3 Broncos to watch 🆘
Quarterback Hank Bachmeier
He’s 11-2 in his 13 starts for the Broncos, completing 233-of-375 pass attempts for 3,029 yards, 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions, but he’s been in and out of the lineup. He missed six games due to a pair of injuries in 2019 and two games last year due to COVID.
Avalos talked about his “final decision making” and feel with the first-team offense, which is why he got the nod over USC transfer Jack Sears. Bachmeier has showed steady flashes when healthy, so we’ll see how he handles the new-look offense and a talented UCF defensive front in his face.
Wide Receiver Khalil Shakir
The senior receiver is one of only 11 players in the Mountain West to appear on the preseason first-team all-conference lists for Athlon, Pro Football Focus, Phil Steele and the Mountain West. He’s going to be a problem on Thursday night.
Last year, he caught 52 balls for 719 yards and six touchdowns and was 10th nationally averaging 7.43 receptions per game, so you know he’ll be touching the ball a lot. He also rushed for 8.7 yards per attempt last season, and was one of only two players nationally with 700 yards receiving and 100 yards rushing, so he can do that, too.
I’d expect Bachmeier to look his way early and often, given UCF’s youth in the secondary.
DE Shane Irwin
The two-time transfer found a home last season at Boise and was impressive, given the shortened season. He led the Broncos defense with six sacks and his per-game sack total (0.86) ranked 15th nationally. He had back-to-back two-sack performances against Colorado State (Nov. 12) and at Hawai’i (Nov. 21) last season, which is the only time a Bronco has done that since the NCAA began tracking that stat in 2000.
What they’re saying: Gus Malzahn on Boise State 🗣️
“Our guys are real excited to play a really good Boise State. When I look at them, I see experience, experience everywhere…so that's what really concerns you. They're a program that's used to winning. They're a program that's used to winning championships. We've got a lot of respect for them…and it’ll be a good test of where we’re at.”
2 match ups to keep an eye on 👀
UCF QB Dillon Gabriel vs. Boise State’s young corners
There’s the potential for Gabriel to have an absolute field day picking apart the Broncos two new starting corners, Markel Reed and Tyric LeBeauf, who have one career start between them. Boise State’s safety group has experience, especially with Hawaii native Kekaula Kaniho back there, but Gabriel’s going to be licking his chops when Jaylon Robinson is 1-on-1 on the outside against those inexperienced corners.
Gabriel clearly knows the personnel he’s going up against, listing off jersey numbers of key Broncos defensive players by memory during Monday’s weekly press conference. Good luck to No. 8 and No. 22 back there.
UCF’s defensive line vs. Boise State’s offensive line
I’m going to fixated on the battle up front, because it may very well determine who wins this game. The Knights front seven is vastly better than what we saw last season and the addition of SEC transfer Big Kat Bryant and return of a fresh Kalia Davis on the defensive line will turn that group into one of the team’s strength.
However, Boise State’s big fellas up front are experienced, with four of the five starters back. Offensive tackle John Ojukwu is a 6-foot-6, 310-pound savage, so expect him to win a few battles protecting his quarterback. If the line can keep Bachmeier clean, it could be a shootout in Orlando.
What they’re saying: Andy Avalos on UCF QB Dillon Gabriel 🗣️
“To see what he’s grown into, as a player and how he leads his team and what he’s been able to accomplish there, is pretty impressive. He is a guy who is extremely accurate, has a fast release, and has quick feet…he can extend and create plays whether it be in the run game or pass game, so we will have a great challenge on our hands in consideration to their quarterback and their offense.”
1 notable factor that could change the game 🏟️
It’s cliche to say the crowd, but in this case, I think it’s legitimate. UCF expects to have a packed, sold-out Bounce House with over 40,000 in attendance for the first time since 2019. Boise State is trying to simulate the crowd noise and the humidity, but they haven’t played in front of more than 1,500 people in nearly two years. It’s going to be a factor, no doubt.
UCF played in front of limited crowds, but that was still over 10,000 fans at least three times last year. The Broncos played their Mountain West conference championship against San Jose State with zero fans in the stands.
Give me a Knugget 🐴: Gus Malzahn is a perfect 9-0 in home openers in his career as a head coach.
So, what’s your prediction?
I think it’ll be a high-scoring game, with Dillon Gabriel going off against the Broncos defense, who will get worn down by UCF’s high-scoring offense in the September Florida heat. Boise gets a few third-quarter scores out of halftime to make this thing interesting, but the Knights extend the lead in the final frame to seal it. Honestly, I’m just pumped for the two (historically) best non-Power 5 schools to show the entire country they’re for real.
My final score: UCF 42-30
Other notable games on Thursday night 📺
🏈 The Citadel at No. 22 Coastal Carolina, 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏈 Weber State vs. No. 24 Utah, 7:30 p.m. (Pac 12 Network)
🏈 USF (🤮) at NC State, 7:30 p.m. (ACCN)
🏈 No. 4 Ohio State at Minnesota, 8 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 Bowling Green vs. Tennessee, 8 p.m. (SEC Network)
🏈 Southern Utah at No. 25 Arizona State, 10:30 p.m. (Pac 12 Network)