Who's better: 2017 UCF or 2021 Cincinnati? 👀 Plus, betting lines and key match ups on Saturday
Let's examine the numbers to truly see how the two best Group of 5 teams stack up against each other, hypothetically, before previewing Saturday's big game.
Who’s heading up to Cincinnati 🙋🏼♂️? I’ll be making the trek to Ohio on Saturday morning and sitting in Section 106 with our friend @ucf_problems. Fire back an email if you’re going and where you’re sitting so we can connect!
Today’s read is 6 minutes ⏲️
Trending in the Kingdom: ‘17 UCF or ‘21 Cincy 👀
The 🐐 McKenzie Milton already weighed in, and his comments (of course) went viral, but Saturday’s battle between UCF and Cincinnati has naturally opened up the debate over who truly is the better Group of 5 team: 2017 UCF or this year’s Cincinnati squad?
Let me be clear: This debate won’t be complete until we see how Cincy’s season ends up, especially if they get in the playoff, so to get a more complete picture, we need to look back over the two seasons of dominance for each team: UCF 2017-18 and Cincinnati 2020-21.
Honestly, the sole reason the Bearcats have a shot is due to the foundation UCF laid before them, and the disrespect the committee showed to the Knights and the talent in their conference. The 2017-18 Knights were the poster child for how unfair a four-team playoff is to any-non Power 5 school, regardless of the opponents you beat. The Playoff director didn’t see it that way, saying UCF didn’t play tough enough opponents, despite a run of 25-straight wins spurred by that 2017 sqaud, which was the 22nd-longest run in FBS history and the fourth-longest streak since 2000.
Cincinnati doesn’t have that type of a win streak over the last two years, but they are 14-1 since the start of 2020, with their only loss to current-No. 1 Georgia in the 2020 Peach Bowl.
During that 15-game stretch, Cincinnati’s average margin of victory is 23.8 points
UCF’s average margin of victory during their 25-game regular season win streak: 26.5 points
Which offense was better?
UCF: During their elite run, UCF set a FBS record scoring 30 or more points in 31 straight games, a streak Alabama topped this year. Led by Milton during their undefeated season, the Knights averaged just under 50 points per game, which was No. 1 in the country. The Bearcats, during their run over the last year and change, have never been ranked higher than 9th, averaging 41 points per game in 2021.
Cincy has topped the 50-point mark three times dating back to the start of 2020, so a span of 15 games. The Knights put up a 50-burger five times during their 13-0 run.
If we look at the quarterbacks, McKenzie Milton gets the nod there, too, but it depends on the sample size.
If you just look at his 13-game run in 2017, Milton completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,037 yards and 45 total touchdowns to just 9 interceptions.
Those numbers jump to 6,700 pass yards, 79 touchdowns and just 15 picks over a 23-game span, from 2017-18, prior to his devastating injury against USF.
Ridder’s numbers have been similar over a season-long stretch, but keep in mind he’s played two more games than Milton’s 2017 run, if you’re looking at the 15-game stretch I referenced above.
A 66 percent completion percentage, 3,573 passing yards, 46 total touchdowns and just 9 interceptions.
If you got back over his last 23 games, Ridder’s numbers are far below Milton’s production: 4,800 pass yards, 59 touchdowns and just 13 picks.
Which defense was better?
Cincinnati: The Bearcats definitely have the edge here. They’ve been top 10 in scoring defense the last two seasons dating back to the start of 2020. UCF’s scoring defense never cracked the Top 35 in either of their ranked seasons.
In terms of turnovers gained, UCF was Top 6 both years in 2017-18. Cincinnati has been pretty good too, ranked No. 10 and No. 16, respectively.
The Bearcats have given up 30 points or more just once during their 15-game run, while the Knights did that eight times from 2017-18.
Who had the better strength of schedule?
Even: ESPN’s College Football Power Index (FPI) gives the nod to the Bearcats. UCF, according to the FPI, got as high as 15 in 2017. Cincinnati is ranked 10th in 2021.
But in terms of wins over ranked teams, it’s pretty even:
UCF beat No. 22 USF, No. 16 Memphis, No. 7 Auburn and No. 19 Cincinnati during their run.
The Bearcats have beaten No. 22 Army, No. 16 SMU, No. 20 Tulsa and No. 9 Notre Dame.
If we single out both of their best wins: UCF over No. 7 Auburn and Cincinnati over No. 9 Notre Dame, ESPN’s FPI values Auburn (9th in FPI) in 2017 over Notre Dame (No. 17) in 2021, so we’ll use that as the tie breaker.
Keep in mind 🧐: Cincinnati started this season ranked No. 10, despite a loss in their bowl game in 2020. UCF opened the 2018 season ranked No. 21, even though they ended the year prior undefeated, essentially giving them no shot at the playoff from the get-go.
Again, this debate isn’t finalized until we see how Cincinnati finishes off this run. Either way, these two are the class of the Group of 5 and it’s been fun to watch them try and crash the party of Playoff elites during their respective runs.
UCF vs. Cincinnati: Betting line, key match ups and the players to watch
UCF Knights (3-2) vs. No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0)
Date: Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021
Time: 12 p.m. EST
Venue: Nippert Stadium – Cincinnati, Ohio
Coverage: ABC
Previous meetings: Series tied, 3-3
Gambling Odds (via Cesars Sportsbook)
Spread: Cincinnati -21.5
Moneyline: UCF +850, CIN -1600
Total: Over 56.5 (-110), Under 56.5 (-110)
Betting trend to know: The total has hit the under in four of Cincinnati's last six games against UCF.
What you need to know about Cincinnati 🤔
Clearly, when you’re the No. 3 team in the country, you’ve got some serious talent, but this team’s strength is its defense, which allows just 12.2 points per game to its opponents, second-best in the nation.
That’s certainly not a good sign for a UCF offense that - without starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel - has averaged just 25 points per game, cut nearly in half from the 44.6 they averaged with their star QB under center.
No fly zone 🙅♂️: Cincinnati’s defense is really, really talented. Much like UCF’s secondary last year, they have multiple guys back there who are NFL-ready:
They’re +8 in turnover differential, which is tied for sixth nationally.
Ahmad Gardner, one of Cincy’s best corners, has also not allowed a single touchdown in his career, spanning approximately 800 coverage snaps, per The Athletic.
Between Gardner, Coby Bryant (six pass break ups) and Arquon Bush (seven passes defended), this team has one of the best defensive backfields in the sport.
Their opponent completion percentage (48 percent) leads the nation, they’ve given up just three passing touchdowns and have nine picks.
UC’s pass efficiency defense (86.04) ranks No. 2 nationally.
The centerpiece offensively for Cincinnati is quarterback Desmond Ridder, and rightfully so, given he’s one of then nation’s best signal callers. They may also have one of the most underrated running backs in football in Jerome Ford. More on those two in a second.
In terms of the team overall, do we actually know how good they are? Yes, they’re the No. 3 team in the nation and may have the best shot of any Group of 5 team ever (you’re welcome) to crack the College Football Playoff, but wins over Indiana and ranked Notre Dame don’t look as strong as the season’s gone on.
Home sweet home 🏠: Cincinnati has won 23 straight home games, the second-longest streak in the country (Clemson has 31).
What you need to know about UCF 🤔
The Bearcats have won 13 straight regular-season games and it’s certainly going to be a tough ask for UCF to win on the road, in a sold-out environment, without all their top talent.
Now, there’s rumors we could see the return of running back Isaiah Bowser, which would really give this offense - and true freshman quarterback Mikey Keene - a lift, but he may be a game-time call.
The Knights are really, really banged up, as we noted in a newsletter earlier this week. They’ll be without their starting quarterback, best defensive tackle, No. 1 receiver and possibly their top running back, plus a ton of contributors are questionable here and there.
You’d love to see what a full-strength version of the Knights could do against this Cincinnati squad, but there’s a few areas Gus Malzahn may be able to take advantage.
Here’s where UCF can win in the margins: Cincinnati is one of the worst teams in the nation on third downs.
They’ve converted on just 13 of their 41 attempts, which is 31 percent, or 114th in the nation. That’s on par with Vanderbilt and just ahead of Kansas. Yuck.
If you can slow down Ridder and Ford on first and second down, you have a chance to get off the field and hand the ball back over to your offense.
Cincinnati also isn’t great in terms of time of possession, raking 116th in the nation. They don’t manage the clock well, so if you can frustrate them and somehow get them to play from behind, you could have a chance to rattle them.
What they’re saying: Luke Fickell on UCF’s offense 🗣️
“Maybe it hasn’t been as explosive the last couple of weeks then maybe they were a couple of years ago, but nonetheless they still have that talent. They still have the big play capability.”
3 Bearcats to watch 🆘
Quarterback Desmond Ridder
He’s really good. End of story. No, seriously, Ridder has improved drastically since UCF saw him a few years ago in 2018. He’s the nation’s winningest signal caller with a 35-5 career record and showed the country his skillset in the massive win over Notre Dame, where he totaled 323 yards and 3 touchdowns.
He leads the American Conference in QBR (73.7) and is the nation’s highest-graded QB in the fourth quarter (93.9, according to PFF College)
He’s thrown for at least 210 yards and one touchdown in each of Cincinnati’s five games this season.
What they’re saying: Gus Malzahn on Ridder 🗣️
"He's an experienced guy. He knows what he's doing. He's very well coached. He understands the system. Presents challenges in the run game, pass game. He's a real guy."
Running Back Jerome Ford
Ridder is the centerpiece, but Ford makes the offense lethal. He has 520 yards rushing and eight touchdowns this year, averaging 6.34 yards per carry, and is coming off the best game of his career. The Alabama transfer torched Temple for 149 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries.
At home, he’s especially good, topping 100 rushing yards in all three home games at Nippert Stadium this year.
Ford at home in 2021: 127.7 rush yards per game, 6 touchdowns and 8.5 yards per carry.
Defensive back Ahmad Gardner
We talked a lot about him at the start, but he has to be licking his chops against a true freshman quarterback. Nicknamed “Sauce”, he’s the main ingredient in the Bearcats vaunted defense.
He’s considered one of the best non-Power 5 pro prospects and it’s easy to understand why scouts like him. He’s 6-foot-2 and thrives in press coverage, but can get it done in space, too.
2 match ups to keep an eye on 👀
UCF RB Johnny Richards vs. Cincinnati’s defensive line
The one game breaker for UCF offensively since Gabriel went down has been Richardson, who showed just how explosive he can be against ECU. You can run on Cincinnati, and Richardson should find himself in space a few times in this game.
The Bearcats allow 124 yards per game on the ground, which is 44th in the country. If J-Rich, who’s run for 100 yards in two of the last three games, can get in a groove and keep the defensive backfield honest, it may open up space for Keene to toss a few down the field.
Cincinnati RB Jerome Ford vs. UCF’s defensive line
The run defense for UCF will be tested this week, especially missing Kalia Davis, and it comes a bad time with a bruiser like Ford in their face. In its two losses this season, the Knights have allowed more than 500 yards on the ground and nearly five yards per carry, so they’ll have to find a way to contain Ford if they want to pull off the upset.
3 trends of note 🏟️
The Bearcats have won 31 straight games against unranked opponents.
Cincinnati has beaten UCF the last two games by a total of six points
Cincinnati is 36-6 (.857) since the start of 2018 and 14-1 record since the start of 2020 (only loss was 24-21, to current-No. 1 Georgia in the 2020 Peach Bowl)
So, what’s your prediction?
I’d really like to root for an upset, and I will be (from section 106 😊), but it’s really hard to envision a short-handed UCF slowing down Ridder, Ford and that offense with so many injuries and inconsistency on defense. That, plus Keene on the road, in that environment, against those corners, it spells disaster.
However, I think it’s a lot closer than the number. UCF will come to play and make Cincy sweat.
My final score: Cincinnati 30-23